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【关 键 词】 FertilizerMarket|Review|Outlook

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       China maintained a rapid economic growth in 2006 under the national macro-control policy, the first year of the 11th Five-Year Period (2006~2010) of the national economic development. A series of policies for economic development, including objectives, key points of growth and directions of structural readjustment, have been worked out.

 

      The 11th Five-Year Plan for the Chinese Economic And Social Development, promulgated in March, 2006, requires that per unit GDP energy consumption and pollution discharge be reduced by 20% and 10% in five years against the backdrop of an expected annual 7.5% GDP growth. This poses a new challenge to the fertilizer industry because it is one of the industries with high energy consumption and high pollution discharge. The policy is expected to bring about a new round of technical innovation, distribution of production and product-mix readjustment in the fertilizer industry. How will the new round of restructuring be carried out?

 

      The 11th Five-Year Plan for National Agricultural & Rural Economic Development, promulgated in Aug., 2006, sets up a goal of annual 0.65% increase in comprehensive grain productive capacity in five years under the condition of annual 0.18% decrease in planted grain acreage. Then how will the fertilizer industry step up fertilizer supply, improve its product-mix, improve fertilizing technology and raise fertilizer utilization to ensure the accomplishment of grain production goals?

 

      The 11th Five-Year Plan for the Fertilizer Industry, promulgated in Oct., 2006, puts forward a fertilizer productive capacity of 63.5 million MT and a production of 60 million MT a year by 2010 in order to guarantee fertilizer supply. The specific goals of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium production are 42 million MT, 15 million MT and 3 million MT respectively. Domestic fertilizer self-sufficiency should reach 90%, that is, basic self-sufficiency of nitrogen and phosphorus supply and 30% of potassium supply. How will the fertilizer industry readjust its distribution of production and product-mix and what steps will it take in technical innovation to attain the industry’s development goals?

 

      The conflict between the government’s policy to practice macro-control and the policy of increasing farmers’ income and the conflict between fertilizer price growth and government’s control remained unsettled in 2006. Farmers’ and fertilizer producers’ complaints led to a government decision to lift fertilizer price control, withdraw preference policies for fertilizer producers and give direct cash subsidy to farmers from 2007 on. But fertilizer production cost keeps increasing on account of the reform of coal, power and natural gas price toward market economy. Owing to this, there was a tendency of declining profit margin in the fertilizer industry in late 2006. Therefore, how the government reforms its policies will have great impact on fertilizer production and fertilizer market trend in 2007.

 

      On the basis of thorough review and analysis of government’s fertilizer policies and market trend in 2006, taking into account of national economic move and overall policy reform, BOABC will make an in-depth analysis of the problems facing the fertilizer market in 2007 and draw reasonable conclusions, so as to provide a reference to people concerned about China’s fertilizer market.

 

 

 

1.1 National Economic Planning And Fertilizer Industry’s Planning

1.1.1 National Economic Planning Goals and emphases in 11th Five-Year Period (2006-2010)

1.1.2 Fertilizer Industry’s Development Planning Goals and emphases for 11th Five-Year Period

1.1.3 Agricultural Development Planning Goals and emphases in 11th Five-Year Period

1.2 Agricultural Policy & Fertilizer Industry’s Investment and Development

1.2.1 The influences of Agricultural Policy on Fertilizer Industry’s Investment and Development

1.2.2 Fertilizer Subsidy Policy And Fertilizer Industry’s Investment & Development

1.3 Resource Policy & Fertilizer Industry’s Investment And Development

1.3.1 Coal Policy & Fertilizer Industry’s Investment And Development

1.3.2 Natural Gas Policy & Fertilizer Industry’s Investment And Development

1.3.3 Electricity Policy & Fertilizer Industry’s Investment And Development

1.3.4 Mineral Resource Policy & Fertilizer Industry’s Investment And Development

1.4 Environmental Protection & Fertilizer Industry’s Investment & Development

1.5 Financial Policy & Fertilizer Industry’s Investment & Development

1.6 Investment Policy & Fertilizer Industry’s Investment & Development

1.7 China Fertilizer Industry’s Investment & Development in 2006-2010

1.7.1 Investment in Nitrogen Industry

1.7.2 Investment in Phosphate Compound Fertilizer Industry

1.7.3 Investment in Potassium Industry

1.8 Fertilizer Industry’s Competitiveness

1.8.1 Nitrogen Industry’s Competitiveness

1.8.2 Phosphorus Industry’s Competitiveness

1.8.3 Potassium Industry’s Competitiveness

1.9 Fertilizer Distribution System

1.9.1 Fertilizer Distribution System Development

1.9.2 Development of Chain Store Mode in Farm Material Distribution

1.9.3 Sinochem’s Marketing Network Construction

1.9.4 China Farm Supply Group’s Marketing Network Construction

1.9.5 Postal System’s Participation in Farm Material Supply

1.9.6 Foreign Investment in Fertilizer Distribution

2.1 Review of Fertilizer Market in 2006

2.1.1 Impact of Government’s Macro-Readjustment on Fertilizer Market

2.1.1.1 Impact of Financial Policy Change on Investment in Fertilizer Industry

2.1.1.2 Effect of Government’s Regulating Policy on Fertilizer Market

2.1.2 Influence of International Fertilizer Market on Chinese Market

2.1.3 Analysis of Fertilizer Industry’s Prosperity Index in 2006

2.1.4 Fertilizer Market in 2006

2.1.5 Fertilizer Input & Returns from Farm Production

2.1.6 Fertilizer Production in 2006

2.1.7 Fertilizer Imports & Exports in 2006

2.1.8 Fertilizer Consumption in 2006

2.1.9 Fertilizer Market Price in 2006

2.2 Outlook of Fertilizer Market in 2007

2.2.1 Prediction of Fertilizer Market Trend in 2007

2.2.2 Possible Fertilizer Policy in 2007

2.2.3 Fertilizer Import Quota Distribution for Year 2007

2.2.4 Authorized Fertilizer Importers in 2007

2.2.5 Possible Change in Fertilizer Export Tax Rate

2.2.6 Estimates of Fertilizer Production in 2007

2.2.7 Estimates of Fertilizer Imports & Exports in 2007

2.2.8 Estimates of Fertilizer Consumption in 2007

3.1 Review of Nitrogen Market in 2006

3.1.1 Analysis of Nitrogen Industry’s Prosperity Index in 2006

3.1.2 Production Cost & Yields in Nitrogen Industry in 2006

3.1.3 Analysis of Nitrogen Market in 2006

3.1.4 Nitrogen Production in 2006

3.1.5 Nitrogen Imports & Exports in 2006

3.1.6 Nitrogen Consumption in 2006

3.1.7 Review of Urea Market in 2006

3.1.7.1 Analysis of Urea Market in 2006

3.1.7.2 Urea Production in 2006

3.1.7.3 Urea consumption in 2006

3.1.7.4 Urea Price Trend

3.1.8 ABC Market in 2006

3.1.8.1 ABC Production in 2006

3.1.8.2 ABC Consumption in 2006

3.1.8.3 ABC Price Trend in 2006

3.2 Outlook of Nitrogen Market in 2007

3.2.1 Prediction of Nitrogen Market Trend in 2007

3.2.2 Urea Market Trend in 2007

3.2.3 Estimates of Nitrogen Production in 2007

3.2.4 Estimates of Nitrogen Imports & Exports in 2007

3.2.5 Estimates of Nitrogen Consumption in 2007

4.1 Review of Phosphorus Market in 2006

4.1.1 Analysis of Phosphorus Industry’s Prosperity Index in 2006

4.1.2 Cost & Yields in Phosphorus Industry in 2006

4.1.3 Analysis of Phosphorus Market in 2006

4.1.4 Phosphorus Production in 2006

4.1.5 Phosphorus Imports & Exports in 2006

4.16 Phosphorus Consumption in 2006

4.1.7 Phosphorus Price in 2006

4.2 Outlook of Phosphorus Market in 2007

4.2.1 Prediction of Phosphorus Market Trend in 2007

4.2.2 Estimates of Phosphorus Production in 2007

4.2.3 Estimates of Phosphorus Exports

4.2.4 Estimates of Phosphorus Consumption

5.1 Review of Potassium Market in 2006

5.1.1 Analysis of Potassium Industry’s Prosperity Index in 2006

5.1.2 Cost & Yields in Potassium Industry

5.1.3 Qinghai Salt Lake Potassium Group’s Production

5.1.4 Progress in Xinjiang Lop Nor Potassium Project

5.1.5 Progress in Chinese Overseas Potassium Projects

5.1.6 Potassium Market in 2006

5.1.7 Potassium Production in 2006

5.1.8 Potassium Imports & Exports in 2006

5.1.9 Potassium Consumption in 2006

5.1.10 Potassium Price in 2006

5.2 Outlook of Potassium Market in 2007

5.2.1 Prediction of Potassium Market Trend in 2007

5.2.2 Estimates of Potassium Production in 2007

5.2.3 Estimates of Potassium Exports in 2007

5.2.4 Potassium Consumption in 2007

6.1 Review of compound fertilizer Market in 2006

6.1.1 Analysis of Prosperity Index in compound fertilizer Industry in 2006

6.1.2 Cost & Yields in Compound Fertilizer Industry in 2006

6.1.3 Analysis of Compound Fertilizer in 2006

6.1.4 Compound Fertilizer Production in 2006

6.1.5 Compound Fertilizer Imports & Exports in 2006

6.1.6 Compound Fertilizer Consumption in 2006

6.1.7 NPK And DAP Price Trend in 2006

6.2 Outlook of Compound Fertilizer Market in 2007

6.2.1 Prediction of Compound Fertilizer Market Trend in 2007

6.2.2 Estimates of Compound Fertilizer production in 2007

6.2.3 Estimates of Compound Fertilizer Imports & Exports in 2007

6.2.3.1 Estimates of DAP Imports & Exports in 2007

6.2.3.2 Estimates of NPK Exports in 2007

6.2.4 Estimates of Compound Fertilizer Consumption

7.1 Review & Outlook of Synthetic Ammonium Market in 2006-2007

7.1.1 Prospect of Synthetic Ammonium Imports

7.1.2 Synthetic Ammonium Production in 2006

7.1.3 Synthetic Ammonium Imports & Exports in 2006

7.1.4 Synthetic Ammonium Price Trend in 2006

7.1.5 Estimates of Synthetic Ammonium Production in 2007

7.1.6 Estimates of Synthetic Ammonium Imports & Exports

7.2 Review & Outlook of Phosphorite Market in 2006-2007

7.2.1 Prospect of Phosphorite Imports

7.2.2 Phosphorite Production in 2006

7.2.3 Phosphorite Imports & Exports

7.2.4 Phosphorite Price Trend in 2006

7.2.5 Estimates of Phosphorite Production in 2007

7.2.6 Phosphorite Imports & Exports in 2007

7.3 Review & Outlook of Sulfuric Acid Market in 2006-2007

7.3.1 Sulfuric Acid Production Plan in 11th Five-Year Period

7.3.2 Sulfuric Acid Production in 2006

7.3.3 Sulfur Production in 2006

7.3.4 Sulfuric Iron Production in 2006

7.3.5 Sulfur Imports in 2006

7.3.6 Sulfuric Acid Imports

7.3.7 Sulfuric Iron & Sulfur Price Trend in 2006

7.3.8 Estimates of Sulfuric Acid Production in 2007

7.3.9 Estimates of Sulfur Production in 2007

7.3.10 Estimates of Sulfuric Iron Production in 2007

7.3.11 Estimates of Sulfur Imports in 2007

7.3.12 Estimates of Sulfuric Acid Imports in 2007

7.4 Review & Outlook of Phosphoric Acid Market in 2006-2007

7.4.1 Phosphoric Acid Production in 2006

7.4.2 Phosphoric Acid Imports in 2006

7.4.3 Estimates of Phosphoric Acid Production in 2007

7.4.4 Estimates of Phosphoric Acid Imports in 2007

Table1, Chemical Fertilizer Balance Sheet, 2002-2007

Table2, Import by Major Chemical Fertilizer Products, 2002-2006

Table3, Exports by Major Chemical Fertilizer Products, 2002-2006

Table4, Chemical Fertilizer Production, 2002-2006

Table5, Chemical Fertilizer Consumption, 2002-2006

 

Table6, N-Fertilizer Balance Sheet, 2002-2007

Table7, Balance Sheet of Urea in China, 2002-2007

Table8, N-Fertilizer Production by Variety, 2002-2006

Table9, N-Fertilizer Production, 2002-2006

Table10, N-Fertilizer Consumption, 2002-2006

Table11, China’s Urea Imports by Country Original, 2002-2006

Table12, China’s Urea Exports by Destination Country, 2002-2006

Table13, Urea Imports by Customs, 2002-2006

Table14, China’s Urea Exports by Customs, 2002-2006

Table15, China’s Urea Imports by Provinces, 2002-2006

Table16, China’s Urea Exports by Provinces, 2002-2006

 

Table17, P-Fertilizers Balance Sheet, 2002-2007

Table18, P-Fertilizer Production by Variety, 2002-2006

Table19, P-Fertilizer Production, 2002-2006

Table20, P-Fertilizer Consumption, 2002-2006

 

Table21, K-Fertilizers Balance Sheet, 2002-2007

Table22, K-Fertilizer Production by Variety, 2002-2006

Table23, K-Fertilizer Production, 2002-2006

Table24, K-Fertilizer Consumption, 2002-2006

Table25, China’s Potassium Chloride Imports by Country Original, 2002-2006

Table26, China’s Potassium Chloride Exports by Destination Country, 2002-2006

Table27, Potassium Chloride Imports by Customs, 2002-2006

Table28, China’s Potassium Chloride Exports by Customs, 2002-2006

Table29, Potassium Chloride Imports by Provinces, 2002-2006

Table30, China’s Potassium Sulphate Imports by Country Original, 2002-2006

Table31, China’s Potassium Sulphate Exports by Destination Country, 2002-2006

Table32, Potassium Sulphate Imports by Customs, 2002-2006

Table33, China’s Potassium Sulphate Exports by Customs, 2002-2006

Table34, Potassium Sulphate Imports by Provinces, 2002-2006

 

Table35, Balance Sheet of Compound Fertilizer in China, 2002-2007

Table36, Balance Sheet of DAP in China, 2002-2007

Table37, Compound Fertilizer Production, 2002-2006

Table38, Compound Fertilizer Consumption, 2002-2006

Table39, China’s NPK Imports by Country Original, 2002-2006

Table40, China’s NPK Exports by Destination Country, 2002-2006

Table41, NPK Imports by Customs, 2002-2006

Table42, China’s NPK Exports by Customs, 2002-2006

Table43, NPK Imports by Provinces, 2002-2006

Table44, China’s DAP Imports by Country Original, 2002-2006

Table45, China’s DAP Exports by Country Destination, 2002-2006

Table46, DAP Imports by Customs, 2002-2006

Table47, China’s DAP Exports by Customs, 2002-2006

Table48, DAP Imports by Province, 2002-2006

 

Table49, China’s Import by Major Chemical Fertilizer Related Products, 2002-2006

Table50, China’s Production by Major Chemical Fertilizer Related Products, 2002-2006

Table51, China’s Sulfur Import by Country Original, 2002-2006

Table52, China’s Sulfur Import by Customs, 2002-2006

Table53, China’s Exports by Major Chemical Fertilizer Related Products, 2002-2006

Table54, China Unground Phosphorite Exports by Destination Country, 2002-2006

Table55, China Phosphorite Exports by Customs, 2002-2006

NO:07-22